Are we done with the Lows

A million dollar Question are we done with the Lows --- Well the answer will we many.

First of all sorry to all my friends for not being active as there are some bottle necks still at my work place. Above all my company is migrating to SAP so helluva lot of report work and training and so was occupied. Also will not be available for another week so putting forth here some views and some probabilities.

The last two weeks have been to the delight of traders who have a knack to take risk. It was really a roller coaster ride. On my side too i had benefited a lot. The only thing i regret is that Still i am holding the longs taken at 6069 NF and didn't square and for that reason only i had to play in good quantity to recoup my losses.  Well now the loss has been recouped thanks to the volatility bu stilll regret being on the wrong side of the market. The morale market never satisfies your ego.

Coming to the point here i am posting a chart form icharts.in where we can see that we are nearing the bolinger bands bottom and every time this has happened we have bounced sharply. Will it be this time too. The answer lies in the volume chart. Look at the volumes in november when we went from 6100 to 6300  Well NF has clocked the highest volume that time and still no volume is able to compare itself to the same. It indicates that still the Bull Run has some steam left before we carnage further.

On the other side look at the ultimate oscillator which is nearing the 30 mark. It signifies that we are nearing a low and a bounce is due from extremely oversold levels.

For the next week i have posted the EW counts which may help in case market follows the technicals. To note that it is just mechanical calculation and the news flow too can affect the EW counts. Still with huge volatilty the EW count can be used as a reference to initiate trade for 50-60 points.

For Monday look For reversal pattern from the oversold levels . 5602 - 5545 would offer a temporary support and we may scale to 5740 - 5840 - 5929 before any further fall.

Look for buying near the supports for a powerful rally but be sure to book at resistance. I believe along with huge volatility we will consolidate in this region before any further move from this level.

Also 5410 is the Sep low and and i believe it will be protected too and we may see a bounce again  which may turn into reversal pattern.

Here is the Wave count for the week

Go Long Above 5638 Stoploss 5620 Target 5747.
Go Long Above 5679 Stoploss 5620 Target 5818.
Go Long Above 5732 Stoploss 5679 Target 5909.

Wave 1      5638 - 5747
Wave 2      5747 - 5679
Wave 3      5679 - 5818
Wave 4      5818 - 5732
Wave 5      5732- 5909    

Keep in mind the positional SL should be 5410 on closing basis for any rally to materialize Below 5410. Real carnage waits in the market.Also instead of playing in NF try to trade in in the money options as it will be safe till the volatilty gets reduced.

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