Financial Year Ending

Much of the Money has been lost in waiting for correction rather than corrections itself.

Quite apt for me at this point . I am shaken an stirred this March though not fully. "Thodi Jaan Abhi Baki Hai yaaron". Still some Hopes left . May be April would oblige me.Though said by many experts that Trade with Levels and Not with Hope.But the Human tendency again. Comming to the Markets today the window dressing is over and looking to today's movement Bear have striked back with vengeance.NF oscillation between Premium Discount Premium Discount. The Game has been already played Not to mention that the 45 points premium in April futures is really worrying. Tomorrow The Same would also come to normal.

For tomorrow Too Sell at the peaks . As the Year has ended as per the Finance Dictum and We would see a 150-200 point fall Tomorrow. Dont feel to Keep a SL But still it can be kept at 5940+0.3% Filter.

EOD Update March 30 2011

"The TONGUE weights practically nothing" but....... "a very few people can HOLD it"

Well just one day for expiry. Till now it has been Max pain to the bears . Not to mention that the rally was a result of window dressing only. Tomorrow the possible range for me is 5680-5820 NF. Trade it.

April 1st we may see a huge fall once the expiry is over.

EOD Update March 29 2011

In simple words this was the state of My Mind looking to today's Rally ..

Above 5720 We had almost 60 points in NF but the move was so much tiring that I personally was on the wrong side today.It looks like a total trap as of Now.

For tomorrow 5760 is the resistance and above it we can see 5820. On the contrary below 5680 we would visit 5640 - 5595 - 5550.

Still 2 days top go Can we Expect a 300 Point Fall ????

EOD Update March 28 2011

Are The bulls Exhausted ....... 

Why such a Lethargic Move between 200 DMA and  200 SMA.Technically it should have been today only.Why taking So much time. Looks like a The Lull Before the Storm.Can't Say Much but looking to the 5700 CA OI  Looks like. Better to Say Market is Supreme.But now its time to Play with Strict SL on both the sides.I Mean 5720 for shorts and 5640 for Longs on EOD Basis.

For Tomorrow 5730 is the Resistance and Selling Point Above which we can see a Single Print Move till 5820.Below 5660 - 5640 Carnage till 5590 - 5545 - 5500 awaits in the market.

Still I feel Expiry to be around 5460 on Thurday and April 1st we may see a brutal carnage in the market.

Every Thing to learn From the People of JAPAN

An Excellent Write up Really

1. THE CALM : Not a single visual of chest-beating or wild grief. Sorrow itself has been elevated.

2. THE DIGNITY: Disciplined queues for water and groceries. Not a rough word or a crude gesture.

3. THE ABILITY: The incredible architects, for instance. Buildings swayed but didn't fall. 

4. THE GRACE: People bought only what they needed for the present, so everybody could get something. 

5. THE ORDER: No looting in shops. No honking and no overtaking on the roads. Just understanding. 

6. THE SACRIFICE: Fifty workers stayed back to pump sea water in the N-reactors. How will they ever be repaid? 

7. THE TENDERNESS: Restaurants cut prices. An unguarded ATM is left alone. The strong cared for the weak. 

8. THE TRAINING: The old and the children, everyone knew exactly what to do. And they did just that. 

9. THE MEDIA: They showed magnificent restraint in the bulletins. No silly reporters. Only calm reportage.

10. THE CONSCIENCE: When the power went off in a store, people put things back on the shelves and left quietly

Well that's the Reason Behind the success of JAPAN 


Source : Unknown

EOD UPDATE March 25 2011

Remarkable Day ... and a Trend day too ....

Could not enjoy much as the bias was bearish and just waited to trigger the Positional SL for NF. Many things have changed since today. Is it Euphoria or Nostalgia Would be confirmed next week only.As such we have broken 5620 on the upside and today only have seen a 70 points move above it.

For Monday the Resistance Lies at 5695 above which again we would be seeing 5720 and 5780 as such.Looking to the extremely overbought situation we may retrace and the kind of retracement would tell us that the upside break out was a fake out or shake out. On the contrary support comes at 5650 as such an below it 5510 NF and 5460 NF.I expect NF to retrace to 5460 till expiry.

Remember the Gaps have to be filledbut when only the market Knows ????

Trajectory For NF

Below is the possible trajectory for those who are incurring losses in March Puts.

As such My quantity will be 6 lots to play. Those who have less risk appetite can play in 2 lots of NF

Go Short below 5553. Stop loss 5559. Target 1 is 5526.65.
Go Short below 5543. Stop loss 5559. Target 2 is 5522.15.

Also Above 5560 Go long for Target of 5585 - 5620.

Also Below 5520 Go short for Target of 5500 - 5480. 

Wave A      5553.45 - 5526.65
Wave B      5526.65 - 5543.21
Wave C      5543.21 - 5522.15

Wave 1      5510.10 - 5526.65
Wave 2      5526.65 - 5516.42
Wave 3      5516.42 - 5537.49
Wave 4      5537.49 - 5524.44
Wave 5      5524.44 - 5551.23 

Also If we Open Gap Up around 5600-5580. Go short with sl of 5630 for target of 5555 and again buy at 5555.

Kindly note that this based on pure Mechanical system So Traders are advised to  look at other indicators also.

  

EOD Update March 24 2011

Is is a short term reversal or March Euphoria.

Today NF has managed to close above all the resistances. Also NF has closed above 5531 hence implied bullishness. Tomorrow's Action would confirm the short term bullishness.

For tomorrow the last hurdle is at 5577 NF Above Which 5620 is the target. Below 5508 NF we would visit 5480 - 5460 NF.Till now we are in a broad Range of 5620-5370 and the break down level comes to 5460 NF. I expect a High volatility Tomorrow.

Those Who are having losses in puts can buy equal amount of NF at the supports and Sell at the Resistance to lock in the loss incurred due to puts.Lot size may vary according to Risk appetite but i would suggest a minimum of two lots of NF to trade.I would be posting the Trajectory to trade after 6 PM in the next post.

"Doubt is not an agreeable condition, but certainty is surely an absurd one."

This is what is happening now. After the Morning Storm.Things Got settled at the Peak.Much of the short covering happened today.Is the bearishness over or still we would see 5350 - 5357 ???.

For tomorrow Keep 5530-5540 as strict SL for intraday shorts.As such we are near the channel top so shorting can be done for quick gains.On the contrary now much bearishness will be visible on close below 5440 NF.

For positional shorts also keep a SL of 5531 or 5620.

 

EDD Update March 22 2011

"The best time to do something worthwhile is between yesterday and tomorrow."

Today too was a muted day with the range getting narrower and narrower. With 7 days left for expiry much of action will come in play now. Triangles have always been frustrating and the last time time it happened was in June-July 2010 and we broke on the upside till Diwali high's. This time too a triangle and also March when there will much of window dressing "Bulls and Bears Both Hiding". Tomorrow may be a day to watch for or the same may continue.

For tomorrow 5450 is resistance and above it a dash towards 5485. Bullishness only above 5531NF. Below 5375 NF again we may drag lower to 5310-5320 range and below it 5257. 

Is the NF correcting the oversold condition ??? or An Upmove???

EOD Update March 21 2011

A Muted show today .....

Though the Bearishness prevailed but the fall was not severe today . I think the Fall will become severe near expiry only.Today too After whole day oscillating above 5400 NF gave all gains and move in negative terrain. The bearishness is there but the force is lacking.

For tomorrow 5380 will be the resistance to cross above which again a visit to 5425. On the contrary Below 5450 we are surely visiting 5257 and much lower.

Now the SL for shorts can be raised to 5531 NF.

For the Love of My Life Which Is now the Love of Other

Judai aapki rulati rahegi,
yaad aapki aati rahegi,
pal pal jaan jati rahegi,
jab tak jism mein hai jaan har saans ye rishta nibhati rahegi.


Raaz dil ka dil mein chupate hai wo,
samne aate hi nazar jhukate hai wo,
Baat karte nahi, ya hoti nahi,
par sukar h jab bhi milte hai muskurate h wo.


Zindagi Me Kuch Lamhein Khaas Ban Gaye,
Mile To Mulaqat Ban Gaye,
Bichhre To Yaad Ban Gaye,
or Jo Dil Se Na Gaye,Wo AAP Ban Gaye.

Not to Forget

"Kya Hua Gar Rastein Roshan Nahi ---- "Nimesh"

"Hum Andheron Mein Bhi Chalne ka Hunar Rakhte Hain"

Do Read Who Will Tame the Bears

Life Keeps On moving ........:)

The Bells Ringing ---- Is the World War III Near

So Much So Fast Why ???? Is it for the Black Gold ...... Can this Black Gold Be the trigger for the Next War or I would Say the Extinction of Human race.

Remember the Gulf War ..... The Iraq War ..... Why It happened ???? Did any one found Any chemical Weapons in Iraq .... They why did US put an allegation of Saddam Making Chemical Weapons .... Its Nothing but to prove supremacy and all for the share of black gold.

Now again the crisis have evolved with the Libya Problem. The Gulf council is in the make for helping Libya with air crafts to counter attack the french aircraft. Is there Any Meaning of UNO .... Who has been a Puppet of the US or widely the developed economies.On the Other hand The IRAN Govt has given a dead line to Saudi to move away. Again just to prove supremacy.

Not to forget that today the Chinese Govt also opposed the action of European Nation on the Libyan Front.I dread when the Chinese Dragon will Emit Fire  .... The Asian counter part is bound to add and repercussions would be dangerous too ..... On one side the Islamic nations or widely speaking the OIL producing nations v/s The developed economies v/s the Asian economies .. All would be trying to prove their supremacy over each other.

Who is going to win and Loose that's immaterial .... Its a War of Egoe's ....

Not to forget We are also on he verge of A Nuclear Disaster too .....

Lets Hope for a Better Tomorrow ....... AAMEEN !!!!!!!!!



Also Read Who will Tame the Bears

Spread The Colours of Life

 

Who will tame the Bears

Is it the Beginning of Blood Shed .......

Well day before yesterday I was talking about how far can a single bull hold the market . And Reliance did exactly the same.All Events in order . Can we expect a down freeze on Tuesday ???? The action today confirmed the bearishness started yesterday.Today after the morning Gap Up it was no looking back Seller again at the top this time its 5489. Much action to come next week as we are nearing Expiry.On the Global Front after the Japan Disaster looked a little bit cooled off Again the Libya Problems have resurfaced setting the Crude again on fire. Friend With crude again above $100 Our market is sure to react on Monday too.

For Monday the resistance lies at 5430 NF above which again a quick dash to 5465 region can happen .On the contrary below 5370 NF Panic would take NF to 5310-5320 Range where buying can be done with Strict SL of 5280. The reason for buying in bearish market is that at 5310-5320 NF may bounce just to correct the oversold condition on daily basis.So Buying only for intraday and no carry forward.

It is said that much of the money has been made in a bear market and again the opportunity is knocking at the door. Identify it >>> Capitalize it >>>Monetize it.


Lastly Wishing you Happy Holi and Also a Life ahead full of colors

EOD Update March 17 2011

Still Patience will Pay ............

Today's action has confirmed a bearishness again but 5420 and 5370 are the level to watch tomorrow. A long way to go dont know where we will land but something is waiting for the market to explode on the downside.


For tomorrow resistance is placed at 5480 above which again a visit to 5525. Below 5454 panic awaits in market till 5370 and much lower.

EOD Update March 16 2011

Inspiration never Arrived when we were searching for it .....

Today too the major range could not get resolved.While updating the Europe and US have trimmed all gains. Looks like they were just waiting for our market to close.The Portugal Bailout is the issue now.. Also nifty futures resisted today at the upper band and failed to close above Monday's high.

For tomorrow too the resistance lies in the band of 5545-5555 above which 5585 is possible.Below 5514 we would visit 5475 - 5414 - 5370 at the max.Much depends on where we open tomorrow. Also the credit policy will give some direction to the market.

Crucial times ahead ..... Don't loose hope .... But Gain Patience ....

EOD Update March 15 2011

"Morons with House of Glass have no right to throw Stones on Others"

If we cant support a Noble Cause then we have no Right to dissent it.The message is quite clear. We don't want any Morons at our JN Family.

Today's Action reminds me of the Jan 2008 crash. The events Globally are happening in the same pattern as they were earlier in 2008. Earlier it was Lehman collapse now it is the JAPAN disaster. Mankind has been always supreme in terms of coming out of the clutches of dreadliness and shining again. The Japanese are known for their valor and determination and this time too it will get proved right.

Comming to NF still the Tussle is going on between the Bulls and Bears.

The Reason being with so much Bearishness world wide  NF showed resilience at 5370 . So the tussle.May be just due to Reliance. But How far can a single Bull will be able to hold NF. The answer always lies tomorrow. But the Action remains bearish as of Now.

For tomorrow Resistance is place at 5485 above which a quick bounce to 5525 and above 5525 the last of Bull may take it to 5575-5585 NF.On the contrary below 5415 we would visit 5370 and below it carnage till 5257.Still it is Sell on Rallies only.

Last but not the least

" Those who have castles build in air never should question the Foundation of Others"

EOD Update March 14 2011

Has anything changed .... Well The Life of Japan and the People Have changed .....

Today the set up looks like more to me as a trap. The market may only tell us the further direction. If we look back to May 2010  The day when Dow closed 600 points down .. the next day we followed by a rally of almost 150 points in NF just to land a 400 points down at expiry. The same happened today. Nothing has changed so far.Bears are just waiting to attact when they confront the last Bulls that are hiding..

For tomorrow 5575 is a real hurdle to cross above which again we may see a sharp move till 5620 . On the contrary below 5545  we would be definitely visiting 5485 and much lower.

Still the SL of 5620-5720 for positional shorts is valid. No change in it

This is what it will look like

 

I may be Wrong .... But After All ... Its Learning !!!

Come Home Bears

 

Well this is what the bears are thinking now . Selling at 5611 - 5571 - 5515 . Where will it take . Well The answer always lies always ahead . March may become a month to remember again as carnage awaits in market.

For Monday Resistance is pegged at 5460 and selling can be initiated there. In my personal opinion i expect a huge gap down on Monday and will be followed by brutal killing of bulls as the bears are hungry now.

Below 5413 todays low immediate targets come around 5370 - 5317 . Much to follow after it .

Stay short with SL of 5620/5720.

Last but not the least the picture below is worth the story of bears.

 

EOD Update March 10 2011

Call it a Day  or a Non Day

Range bound day nothing could be resolved.Still the counter remains bearish with a stint of upside move. May be or may not ......... fingers Crossed.

For tomorrow any move above 5525 NF would result in a single 50 point rally till 5571 where again it will  face resistance. On the contrary below 5466 NF would be a break down any how for targets of 5370 and much lower.

Still Sell is the mantra.

Bear Flag

Just Now Avinash --- An Ardent Follower of JN has send me a chart which confirms the bearishness of market.

From Avinash

EOD Update March 9 2011

Sellers at Multiple Tops ...

Earlier when NF touched 5611 the seller took it of 5398 . This time obvously the seller at 5572 would take NF to 5257 or 5157 at the max. Later the market will only decide on the further trajectoty.

For tomorrow 5571 NF is the resistance area and above it we may zoom to 5620 the last top. On the contrary below 5480 carnage awaits in the market till 5420 - 5398 again.This time it may not take support at 5420-5398 and may staright way go to 5317 - 5310 - 5256.

Sell Sell and Sell is the mantra Now.Targets 5200 - 4800 -4500

Intraday

Still Its ripe time to short the market ...... below 5480 carnage awits till 5445 - 5405 - 5398

Delayed

The present rocks .... Cz  Yesterday has gone and Tomorrow doesn't exist. ....... 

Sorry for late update due to Professional obligations ... The global markets rally didn't oblige NF Today too. Nothing has changed since the last days. The shorts still remain with SL of 5720 .. today too below 5540 carnage till 5480 and much lower. Form today we would be slowly grinding lower.

Sit tight with your positions .... 5200 - 4800 - 4500 to come soon.

Typing Error

To Err is Humane ...

Note 5470 NS instead of 5470 NF.

EOD Update March 7 2011

A Sugar Less Day .......

After the Budget Day Volatility Such days will look to us more like Sugarless only. As expected NF crashed Below 5470 to find support at 5400. Taking the support of 5400 NF Bounced too.I missed the bounce in expectation of further fall down but as said market is always supreme. NF has closed below the 5470 mark and thus the bearishness prevails.

For tomorrow 5470 too will act as resistance and any move above it will give a quick 40 point rally till 5510 -5525.Below 5470 tomorrow too a fall can be expected till 5398 - 5370 - 5313 - 5256.

The last thing to point out is that Crude is the decider for market worldwide and till it doesn't cool off the fall will become severe in coming days.

Revolution ?? Rennaisance ??

Clouds come floating in to my life no longer to usher Rain or Bring Storm but to add colour to my sunset sky..........

The DMK has take really a great stand by withdrawing form the UPA.Cheers to the leadership. Why i like this decision is cz it was needed to awaken the crippling UPA who still is silent on the Scams.Earlier we had the Egypt problems and the victory of the common man. This emphasizes the importance of common man be it in democracy ... communism ... or ... dictatorship.I remember during my school days i used to study " A Tale of  Two cities" majority being on french revolution ... Also studied about the industrial revolution in England.All these revolutions have ushered a dramatic change in the life of people and also on the politiacal front.We are just again heading to an era of such revolution step by step. - - - Change awaits - - -

Let the mass who is still sleeping awaken.

Comming to Markets Monday is surely going to be a Night Mare as all the bad news have plummeted on the weekend. Earlier i had mentioned about the crude bomb and now it has detonated by closing above $103.65 What remains are the after shocks on Monday and coming weeks. Also with the political turmoil in India Market will be panicking to a lot.

As far as NF is concerned we may witness a fall below 5470 till 5398 where again intraday players can look for a bounce till 5445 and again we may grind lower to 5370 and 5257.


Also Visit Sell of at the Top and Crude and the Jitters

Crude & the Jitters

Crude is just a kissing distance away form the $103.65 mark

Lets See if the Weekend plays havoc for the markets Globally.

courtsey : metadata

Sell Off at the Top

A Lot can Happen Over a cup of Coffee .....

Today's Coffee too was just as sweet one as the earlier. Those who shorted in the morning at 5610 NF have been the lions today. The Rally is Fizzling out . After the morning sell off not even once NF has tried to kiss the level of 5620. Also some what gravestone doji pattern appears to be on the charts. This time it is at the channel top so chances of breakdown are more.Also i expect crude to move above $103.65 in the weekend and head higher for $120-$127.

For Monday Resistance and congestion zone again is the 5565-5575 NF area where selling can be initiated. Above 5575 NF straight move till 5620 can be there but looking to today's action anything above 5620 will get sold off as there is a seller at 5311-5600 NF.Also below 5481 Carnage awaits in the market till 5425 - 5370.

Sell the market with a SL of 5720 targets are 5200 and much lower.

As said Market is supreme so anything can happen but as such we are playing probabilities of the lower side with a sell at higher levels and with a  SL too and that happens to be sell now.

EOD Update March 3 2011

Up to the Limit But not Beyond the Limit ....

Today too a bullish day but the momentum is lacking.The reason being it was a tiring move till noon.The rally which culminated was just because of the crude retracement.So today's rally cant be concluded as a bullish one. Crude has a target of $127 and it has to reach that level in march to satisfy the ego of OPEC countries. And the carnage awaits in Indian and Global markets.

For tomorrow 5565-5575 is the congestion region and also the resistance. So any move beyond these levels will give a nice 60-70 point rally till 5620 -5656 at the max. On the other side below today's low of 5477 NF we can expect 5420 in a single stretch.Tomorrow too will be range bound movement between 5585 and 5420 in my opinion so buy the declines and sell the resistances..  

Its a delight for day traders now.

EOD Update March 1 2011

In this world of fluctuating trends ... Change is always constant.

Almost in two days the dynamics of market has changed. Much owing to the Crude Factor.Let me tell you that by next week there are maximum possibilities that Crude will be $127. Hence panic awaits in market.

Much will depend on how we open tomorrow owing to negative global cues.

For tomorrow 5556 NF is the area form where we would see a retracement till 5447 - 5420 Below 5420 Carnage awaits in market.Above 5556 we will see run up till 5585 - 5620 -5656.Also around 5420-5447 buying can be initiated with SL of 5370.

Start accumalating 5600-5500-5400 puts at the peaks likely to be 5556 - 5585 - 5620 -5656