EOD Update Nov 16 2010

All movements are in waves ; in politics , in business , in the atmosphere , in spirit  ---  Rest with the descending wave & Mount with the ascending wave.

A great thought to share at this juncture of market . A stupendous show by bears before a holiday. Shorting or Long liquidation (pointed by our own Kumar at Just Nifty ).Why i say long liquidation because of the FII and DII figures. Then what took the market in so panic.In both case the Selling by FII was not that much that the market was in so much panic. I would term it as the nervousness owing to global sentiments and a holiday in Indian Market. Look at the charts Straight way form 6105 NF to 6000 NF accompanied by the highest volume of the day an then the whole day consolidating in very narrow range.I didn't expected any fall below 6075 NF but once broken NF just fell like pack of cards. Also as of now looking to the four volume bars looks like a balanced day NF shorting at higher level and covering at lower level but the lack of buying was missing.We are near a very crucial juncture form were two sides are possible so it is going to be a tug of war.Why saying because already the major support of 6040 NF is broken and we are near another major support of 5950-5935-5800 NF. If this levels don't support then a decent 15% to 20% correction would be seen in market.It may not happen now or never but chances can't be ignored.At present a bounce is in the offing.

Chart Explanation : The oval marks represent the shorts and then the profit booking . The rectangle shows buying . ( purely my opinion ). The white lines show the resistances.

For tomorrow a bounce is sure which may take NF to 6075 - 6141 . 6141 NF is the major reference level so NF has to test the level to check the strength of this down trend .All longs should be immediately liquidated at 6141 NF level and wait for clues from global market.The decoupling of  Indian Markets from rest of the World happened for almost 5 months and now we are imitating the Global trends. It may happen that since China is Curbing FII inflows the same would come in Indian Market and again we may decouple from the Global Markets

I would suggest going long as a contrary trend for a bounce till 6141 NF. At the max 5900 NF on closing basis should be the ideal SL for all longs and calls. Above 6141 NF with volumes 6225 is the immediate target.

My position as of now is 6100 calls and 6400 calls ( confident in 6100 calls but 6400 calls only a miracle can save) . I suggest to liquidate all longs and calls partly at 6075 and fully at 6141 Levels of NF.

Lastly Wishing you all   ---- EID MUBARAK .