The Kiss of the Dragon

Call it a Dead Cat Bounce ---- I will call the Dragon Bounce.

Stupendous performance today ---- First the Leveraged ones covered on the gap-up , Later on the margin calls got triggered - nifty surpassed the key resistance - the ones who were left out ran for cover - lastly those who thought were left out came in --- Eureka Eureka Eureka.


For tomorrow we may see a very labored move till 4985 - 5015. I am expecting a certain level of cooling before any further move. Supports are at 4840 - 4860 where buying can be done again.


Still we are not out of the woods - Today's rally factored in may positivism. 5040 is still a good resistance area above which we may get 5180. 

One may short tomorrow at the opening bell as being a two day holiday i expect a sell off again.

A Prologue to and Epilouge

Referring to My Post of March

Renaissance

Hopefully After 5 Months the Mass is Awake and Hat's off to Anna Hazare Who has initiated this Movement to Remove the "Morass".

A Great Start To New Expiry

A Great Start

• The Contra Approach Played Very Well.
• First SL for buy got Triggered at 4763 --- Still it is a buy with SL of 4667.
• We have to see the Bounces and the strength of it.
• Resistance at 4763 and then 4880 now.
• Some How I am Expecting a Decent Rally till 4980 - 5066.
• SL for shorts is 4880 and for longs is 4667 Now

Have a great Weekend :)

The Month That was and Over now

The Month to Remember.

• A great month with huge whipsaws in a down trending channel.
• As of now Expiry is Over and owing to the new series i am expecting a rally till 4980 - 5066 as of now.
• Tomorrow we may hit a bottom and then rally or directly start rallying tomorrow.
• Buy with a SL of 4763-4667.
• Remember this is to be played only for the bounce as the trend will remain bearish till we dont close above 5588
• SL of 4980 was for August --- It remains "NULL & VOID" for September

Chill !!!!!!

NOTE : Also i am playing in TATA STEEL  480 calls for a Decent Bounce till 510-520

Chart Speaks---Below is the 18 month Chart  of TATA STEEL

Source : www.icharts.in

Contra Approach

• This doesn't mean that you cannot short --- Still it is Sell on Rallies. One may also try Shorts with SL of 4880 or 4915.
•  I am thinking of buy because still we haven't closed below  the May - June 10 Lows of 4786. So the Buy.

See you tomorrow at the Trading Dice :)

Finals Tomorrow

• 4980 Rocks ----
• Still a Sell Target of 4763 - 4667 Awaits.
•  Being Expiry Day whipsaws may be there so Tighten your Seat Belts .

Traps

4980 --- Still a Great Number

• Above 4933 We almost touched 4980. Weakness still visible 
• Stay short with SL of 4980.

Nothing more to add as of now as Expiry has its own ifs and buts Just Have Strict SL .

Its now or never

I cant even term it as a Dead Cat Bounce.

A Dead Cat Bounce always takes the shorters with surprise. The case is not as of now. The bulls staged a decent rally to exit at some decent levels. For me it is just the alignment of  the indicators to correct the oversold conditions.

For tomorrow the support lies at 4868 below which we may directly get 4786 levels and even much lower. Above 4933 we may get 4980.

On the personal front i would brutally short nifty near 4933 levels and even on break of 4868 levels with a SL of 4980.

Target still awaits for 4763 and 4667. At 4667 levels we may see a decent bounce which also can have the potential to take nifty higher. Lets see as still it is too far away.

Rome was not build in a day and thus a single rally cannot change the picture that the bears have painted. 

Brutality At its Best

Market Never Runs on Emotions.

• The same is the Case now ..... The Mass is involved in Bottom fishing Just to find out a Gap Down Next day and the Story continues.
• Target of 4837 done as of now.
• Still I dont see any bounces on the Dice Weakness still inherent 
• The next Level to watch is 4763 - 4667.
• Lower the SL to 4980 Now.

Never Under Estimate the Bears as they come in Disguise Always .

Bears Giving No Space

Every Day Just wake up and Sell Sell Sell

• Today the Crucial level of 4990 gets conquered by bears.
• Target still remains the same 4897 - 4847 - 4837 .
• At 4837 some buying can be done with a 20 point SL.

Ride the trend till it lasts

Back After Weekend

Back after a Great Weekend still dizzy.

• 5197 and further 5141 has acted as great wall of China.
• Target Remains the Same 4897 - 4837.
• Lower the SL for shorts to 5141 NS.

Sorry for the Delay.

Inside Day

A Pause day.

As such even with so much global bullishness nifty was not able to scale 5197 and this shows the weakness.

Today was an inside day hence any side break out or break down will give a decent 100 point move.

Above 5186 target 5211 - 5258 - 5310 & below 5120 target 5070 - 5018.

Personally owing to the long weekend with Monday being a holiday i expect a sell off.

No Change

Except the Gap Up opening  there was nothing that could prove the strength in market.


My net has been troublesome today hoping to get back tomorrow.


Till we are way below 5197 ... Target 4897- 4847 awaits.


Stay short resistance at 5197 and support at 4915

What Next

A Storm Never Comes with a Signal..

That is what this bear Market did. A Typical Bull will Try to buy at Every dips in a Bear Market after a Prolonged Bull Market -- and this what is happening now the bulls are buying at every dips just to see a gap down every day and the Bear Sucks all Out.

If we closely watch the Daily closing the Gaps that have been made are not getting closed at the closing basis and this is a sign of some thing huge to come.Weakness there and thus short brutally at every resistance.

As such today we have closed below 5088 and thus the near by target is 4915 . Contrary above 5133 a powerful rally may emerge taking nifty to 5225 - 5310 and even 5410. Still too early to say that.

Prediction in market always tend to fail hence just ride the Price Wave and the trend till it lasts.

The Contradictory Approach

The Chart Itself Has got the Answers.


At the current RSI Readings a bounce has become necessary just to get sold off.


Will history repeat again ==== Till Now it has happened so.


If happens then 5300 - 5500 is the visible maximum Bounce

Only One Word --- On the Rocks

The Bears Have tasted the Blood.

After the US Downgrade we saw the Gap Down a Powerful Rally and then again to close deep in the Red that too below 5197 - 5180. Technically the Target comes around : :

5197 - 5497 + 5197 = 4897

This does not mean that intermittent rallies will not be there but as such the target remains the same.

Resistance Lies at 5133 and then at the gap area of 5211.On the downside since we have closed below 5197  and below it the Support Lies deep down at 4500. Before that 4897-4847 is the intermittent support.

Chalte Chalte S&P is thinking to downgrade India and Japan .. If that happens ... I will discuss in detail tomorrow.

If You Want More Confirmation

Just look at he Dubai chart

Fingers Crossed But If the Down Freeze Happens It will be Approx at 4700 


Just a thought --- We will See how market Behaves tomorrow then only will take a Fresh position.

Is the Down Freeze on cards

Tel Aviv exchange halts trade after 6% fall

JERUSALEM — Trading on Israel's Tel Aviv stock exchange was temporarily halted on Sunday after share prices fell six percent at the open on news of a US credit rating downgrade, public radio reported.

Trading opened as normal on Sunday, the first day of Israel's working week, but mandatory suspensions went into effect minutes into the session as the stock exchange plunged.

Both the blue-chip TA-25 and the TA-100 indices dropped more than five percent in pre-trading, prompting the exchange to put into effect a practice known as an "English opening," with trading delayed for short periods.

"What happened this morning is that during pre-trading, the TA-25 went down more than five percent, so there are a few actions that are taken," exchange spokeswoman Idit Yaaron told AFP.

"The first is an English opening, where the trading is delayed by three to five minutes, after that, the trading system checks the data again, if it's still up or down by five percent, it's delayed another three to five minutes."

After the first two short suspensions, the indices had failed to stabilise sufficiently, prompting the exchange to authorise a 45-minute suspension, Yaaron said.

The delay allowed trading to return within the five-percent band, and trading resumed shortly afterwards, but both indices quickly began to fall again.

At 11:36 am (0836 GMT), the benchmark TA-25 index was down 6.07 percent at 1,084.84, while the TA-100 had slipped 6.49 percent to be at 9,80.19.

Once ordinary trading gets underway, day trading is not halted unless the exchange drops or rises 12 percent, Yaaron said.

The session on Sunday was the first on the Israeli bourse since the international agency Standard & Poor's said it was downgrading the United States' credit rating to AA+ from the top notch triple-A.

The announcement panicked international markets and was criticised by Washington as unjustified.

But S&P argued US leaders were becoming less able to get to grips with the country's huge fiscal deficit and debt load.

The credit rating agency also gave a negative outlook for the US, saying there was a chance its rating could be cut again within two years if progress is not made to reduce the government budget gap.

In Israel, the stock market plunge also came a day after massive nationwide protests over the high cost of living and income disparity in the Jewish state.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pledged reforms to ease living costs, but has warned the broad reforms favoured by protesters could throw Israeli into a financial crisis.

Is the Storm over or Just Started

The World was Painted Red Today ---

As such today also the panic continued . All targets have rocked till now.

A few months Back Indian Markets got decoupled form the US Markets. Now the Case is different.

No Levels as of now -- Lets See How the market behaves on Monday.

Till then enjoy the Weekend :) :)

The dreaded has Arrived

Dear Warriors

Owing to the yesterday night sell off in the US Markets chances are high that we may open deep red. Anything between 5258 - 5196 is a full booking zone for shorts. Chances are high that a dead cat bounce may emerge. Book shorts fully and enjoy the weekend. :) :) 

The trend Continues

Is the Avalanche Near.

Today also Nifty got sold off at the resistance making newer lows. Still the Weakness is running.

5258 Awaits as such.

SAR remains the same at 5445-5465.

On My Way Still More to Come

Bears have got the necessary Adrenaline now.


Today the target of 5410 achieved and also buying near 5380 gave decent 50 points. As such the bounces are weak and thus more pain to come in near future.


Nothing much to add expect that 5258 is the visible target this week


SAR now 5445-5465.

Bears are Fully Awakened

Bears On the Way But Still Hibernating.

Already this was the third day day with a close below 5497. Bearishness still Prevails.

For tomorrow resistance lies at 5475-5480 Above which 5502 and 5565 are the resistances. Contrary Below 5430-5435 Major support lies at 5380-5410 range where buying can be done with strict SL of 5377.If 5410 or 5377 fails to hold then we would get 5258 levels within a short time.

Sell on rallies is confirmed and till we do not close above 5595-5610 the Bears will be in full force.

Still Down

Has Anything changed ....

Definitely for the US every thing has changed ... Slowly the Economy is going into rashes with just increased debt limit and no source of revenues. The US administration has failed to solve the crisis even with the debt limit hike. The jitteres will be seen very soon.

On the domestic Front Nifty did a gap up but washed all gains ... Inherent Weakness as of Now

For tomorrow Resistance lies at 5533 above which we may get 5560 - 5570. On the contrary already we are below 5533 so the target of 5410 still awaits.

SAR is still the same at 5590-5620 range.