Jul 29, 2011

We are officially in bear terrirory

Official Bear Territory

Nothing Much to Add at present except that we are in a bear territory and 5410 is the last 
confirmation point.

My personal opinion is that we may reach 5258 by next week in a zig zag way. SAR at 5596 now

Wish you a Happy Weekend.

Jul 28, 2011

Expiry has some thing to Say

Expiry had all the answers.

To sum up the Range of  5497 - 5740 got broken on the down side and on the expiry day.

As such the target comes to (5497-5740) +5497 = 5254 to 5250. We have closed below 5533 and also 5497 so definitely 5250 is on the way. As such intermittent bounces may be there but till we dont close above 5620 now it is a bear territory. Tom-morrow we would be watching  the monthly close too.

For tomorrow resistance lies at 5512 above which the bulls may try 5532 - 5577 - 5605 also. On the contrary the Target of 5464 -5410 is still open as the close was below 5497.

Lets see what the august month holds for us.

Jul 27, 2011

A Weak Opening and Weak close

Another Bear Day ...

Looks like Expiry has something to Say for August.

For tomorrow resistance lies at 5560 above it we may get 5588 - 5596 -5609 at the most. Selling pressure will emerge at 5609 . Above 5609 Doors are open for 5680 too but chances remote. On the contrary we have already closed below 5556  so the downside target comes at 5497 - 5464 - 5410.

Expiry Day Strategy ....

Buy 1000 5500 Puts and Hedge it with 5500 calls 4 lots. If the trade triggers then it will be a fortune earned in 5500 puts and if not then capital will get protected with 5500 calls.

To trade or not Choice is yours :)

Jul 26, 2011

A Failed Break Out

A failed Break out --- A Bold Decision --- Expiry Jitters.

To sum up today was a Roller coaster ride in all terms with NF just grinding down and down. Nothing much to Say as the Picture is clear as of Now.

For tomorrow Resistance Lies at 5616 above which we may witness 5680 - 5704 Again. On the contrary Already we have Broken 5580 - hence the Gap at 5532 Awaits . Below 5532 Straight way to 5465 and much Lower levels await.

SL should be Placed on the Terminal and Not in Mind --- This is the need of the Hour.


Jul 25, 2011

Are the Bulls Back


Can we term as Break Out.

As expected above 5667 we got today almost near to 5703 -  5740. As of  now looks like highly OB readings and being at the top we may get a retracement till 5640 - 5615..Still US no out of the woods So Panic too may happen tomorrow.

For tomorrow Resistance lies at 5703 above which 5640 may be achieved on the contrary a move below 5642 may invite panic till 5615- 5606.


As of now Tomorrow we would see the market and take new positions.

SL Hits



SL of 5645 NS Hits


No shorts for Now.

Jul 24, 2011

Just 16 Hours To go

(Reuters) - The U.S. Congress will struggle Sunday to hammer out a deficit deal and assure investors before Asian markets open that America can avert a catastrophic default and hold onto its prized credit rating.

Congressional staff planned to work through the night after President Barack Obama told lawmakers in an emergency White House meeting to find a way to lift the $14.3 trillion (8.76 trillion pounds) limit on U.S. borrowing that would allow the world's largest economy to pay its bills past next year's November election. But new acrimony flared late Saturday on Capitol Hill over that timetable, adding to the difficulties facing negotiators who have been at impasse for weeks over the role of taxes in any deficit reduction plan. An aide to Republican leaders said lawmakers were working on a plan for $3 trillion to $4 trillion in savings over 10 years, but another high-ranking Republican official said no numbers had been set. It was not clear if this package contained additional tax revenue alongside cuts in government spending, as Obama has demanded. Republican leaders want "to show progress" by 4 p.m. EDT (2000 GMT) Sunday, before financial market trading gets under way in Asia, and have legislation to unveil Monday."Congressional leaders are working in good faith with the goal of having something to present to their members on Monday," a second Republican aide said.The United States will run out of funds to service its debt on August 2 if Congress does not approve additional borrowing. Republicans have insisted the White House agree to deep spending cuts for long-term deficit reduction before they approve any increase in America's debt burden.

Negotiations towards that agreement have whipsawed for weeks, finally hitting a brick wall over taxes, one of the most ideologically divisive issues in U.S. politics.A Democratic aide said Republicans were pushing a package that raised the debt limit and cut spending in two steps, while Democrats want a single deal to cover borrowing through 2012.Michael Steel, a spokesman for House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner, the top Republican in Congress, said that "a two-step process is inevitable."Disagreement on that issue prompted Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid to express new disappointment with the process, saying Republican "intransigence" was "pushing us to the brink of a default."Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and White House chief of staff Bill Daley were scheduled to speak on several Sunday television news shows to hammer home Obama's argument that a deal must include more revenue from taxes.

TAX DISPUTE


The frantic drive towards a deal over the weekend began after closed-door talks between Obama and Boehner collapsed on Friday.Those talks broke down as Republican leaders balked at a White House plan to raise revenues by $3.5 trillion to $4 trillion over 10 years, complaining it contained $400 billion more in additional tax revenue than they could stomach. Obama, angry at the collapse of negotiations, chided Republicans and warned time had run out to lift the debt limit. The White House kept up the pressure Saturday, urging Congress not to play "reckless political games" and warning against stop-gap measures that fail to tackle the deficit. Boehner must overcome stout resistance from Tea Party movement conservatives in his own party, who adamantly oppose any steps to raise tax revenue. Rating agencies say they will cut America's Triple-A credit rating if the United States fails to meet debt payments, likely triggering global market turmoil. Even if the United States does not default, its rating will be under pressure if Congress fails to tackle long-term deficit reduction.Financial markets are growing more edgy and U.S. banks and businesses are making contingency plans for the possibility of a debt default that would drive up interest rates, sink the dollar and ripple through economies around the world.


Source : Reuters

Jul 22, 2011

Still Not out of the Woods

A Bad Day For Me just to see the SL Hit in Two Trades and Last one Remains.

Owing to the Global Factors Nifty opened positive retraced and after some whipsaws managed to climb again.But really it was a Tiring move above 5600 which does not give me confidence in longs.

For Monday Resistance lies at 5667 and above it Fresh buying may be observed which can take Nifty to 5703 - 5740 also -- On the contrary now for shorts we have to wait for NF to move below 5577.

Its a Trading range between 5502 - 5667 . Trade it .


I am Still short :) :)


Intraday Update




Stay Short Hard SL 5645 ... Target Open

Jul 21, 2011

Still some steam Left

A Dull Day I Can Say.

Bears lack the Conviction and Bulls are in no Hurry.This is what was seen today.

No much to say At present .. For Tomorrow Resistance Lies at 5565 above which a good move may be seen till 5595 - 5605. On the Contrary downside supports exist at 5502 and 5497 below which we may see 5465.


Stay Short and lower the SL to 5565-5570 now.

Jul 20, 2011

Is the Game Over

Rome was not build in a Day.

Yesterdays move may have converted many bears in to bulls. Me too was slightly frightened . But with today's opening I regained confidence in Bears. Yesterday and Today is a Classic case of What the Option Players can do.. Much of the action is happening around 5600 Calls/Puts.

For tomorrow Resistance lies at 5580 - 5595 above which again an up move may be seen till 5625 - 5635 . On the contrary a Move below 5555 ... would invite 5502 - 5497 -5465 at the most. At 5465 or 5497 we have see the market dynamics and its behavior to take any further position.

Lower the SL for shorts to now to 5620NS / 5645NF.

Jul 19, 2011

The Game Starts Now

Traps every where

Today Rally was nothing but just a Game Plan by the option writers. Nothing much than that. It was expected that above 5605 we may see a dull move till 5635-5645 and that happened.

Nothing has changed since a day and you may see the fruits tomorrow. Tomorrow resistance lies at 5656 above which straight way to 5680 -5705. On the contrary below 5615 --- Panic till 5555 - 5535 awaits.


Remain short will Hard SL of 5685 ....

Jul 18, 2011

Look at the Gold Chart --- Will It Glitter

See the chart ---- Bells ringing

Safety First

Today also Perplexed.

The fall today below 5560 lacked the necessary momentum but some relief to bears as we have closed below 5580 today.It was a Boring days but one thing to note that the technical s are in bad shape now. We may witness a Huge volatile rush this expiry.

For tomorrow Resistance lies at 5605 above which again dull move till 5625-5635 may be seen on the contrary a move below today's low more panic awaits till 5502 - 5465 levels.As such the bias is negative.

Panic awaits so wear helmets during Trading Hours

Jul 17, 2011

We Never Know what we Are going To Loose

When I got home that night as my wife served dinner, I held her hand and said, I've got something to tell you. She sat down and ate quietly. Again I observed the hurt in her eyes.

Suddenly I didn't know how to open my mouth. But I had to let her know what I was thinking. I want a divorce. I raised the topic calmly.She didn't seem to be annoyed by my words, instead she asked me softly, why?

I avoided her question. This made her angry. She threw away the chopsticks and shouted at me, you are not a man! That night, we didn't talk to each other. She was weeping. I knew she wanted to find out what had happened to our marriage. But I could hardly give her a satisfactory answer; she had lost my heart to Jane. I didn't love her anymore. I just pitied her!

With a deep sense of guilt, I drafted a divorce agreement which stated that she could own our house, our car, and 30% stake of my company.

She glanced at it and then tore it into pieces. The woman who had spent ten years of her life with me had become a stranger. I felt sorry for her wasted time, resources and energy but I could not take back what I had said for I loved Jane so dearly. Finally she cried loudly in front of me, which was what I had expected to see. To me her cry was actually a kind of release. The idea of divorce which had obsessed me for several weeks seemed to be firmer and clearer now.

The next day, I came back home very late and found her writing something at the table. I didn't have supper but went straight to sleep and fell asleep very fast because I was tired after an eventful day with Jane.

When I woke up, she was still there at the table writing. I just did not care so I turned over and was asleep again.

In the morning she presented her divorce conditions: she didn't want anything from me, but needed a month's notice before the divorce. She requested that in that one month we both struggle to live as normal a life as possible. Her reasons were simple: our son had his exams in a month's time and she didn't want to disrupt him with our broken marriage.

This was agreeable to me. But she had something more, she asked me to recall how I had carried her into out bridal room on our wedding day.

She requested that every day for the month's duration I carry her out of our bedroom to the front door ever morning. I thought she was going crazy. Just to make our last days together bearable I accepted her odd request.

I told Jane about my wife's divorce conditions. . She laughed loudly and thought it was absurd. No matter what tricks she applies, she has to face the divorce, she said scornfully.

My wife and I hadn't had any body contact since my divorce intention was explicitly expressed. So when I carried her out on the first day, we both appeared clumsy. Our son clapped behind us, daddy is holding mommy in his arms. His words brought me a sense of pain. From the bedroom to the sitting room, then to the door, I walked over ten meters with her in my arms. She closed her eyes and said softly; don't tell our son about the divorce. I nodded, feeling somewhat upset. I put her down outsidethe door. She went to wait for the bus to work. I drove alone to the office.

On the second day, both of us acted much more easily. She leaned on my chest. I could smell the fragrance of her blouse. I realized that I hadn't looked at this woman carefully for a long time. I realized she was not young any more. There were fine wrinkles on her face, her hair was graying! Our marriage had taken its toll on her. For a minute I wondered what I had done to her.

On the fourth day, when I lifted her up, I felt a sense of intimacy returning. This was the woman who had given ten years of her life to me.

On the fifth and sixth day, I realized that our sense of intimacy was growing again. I didn't tell Jane about this. It became easier to carry her as the month slipped by. Perhaps the everyday workout made me stronger.

She was choosing what to wear one morning. She tried on quite a few dresses but could not find a suitable one. Then she sighed, all my dresses have grown bigger. I suddenly realized that she had grown so thin, that was the reason why I could carry her more easily.

Suddenly it hit me... she had buried so much pain and bitterness in her heart. Subconsciously I reached out and touched her head.

Our son came in at the moment and said, Dad, it's time to carry mom out. To him, seeing his father carrying his mother out had become an essential part of his life. My wife gestured to our son to come closer and hugged him tightly. I turned my face away because I was afraid I might change my mind at this last minute. I then held her in my arms, walking from the bedroom, through the sitting room, to the hallway. Her hand surrounded my neck softly and naturally. I held her body tightly; it was just like our wedding day.

But her much lighter weight made me sad. On the last day, when I held her in my arms I could hardly move a step. Our son had gone to school. I held her tightly and said, I hadn't noticed that our life lacked intimacy. I drove to office.... jumped out of the car swiftly without locking the door. I was afraid any delay would make me change my mind...I walked upstairs. Jane opened the door and I said to her, Sorry, Jane, I do not want the divorce anymore.

She looked at me, astonished, and then touched my forehead. Do you have a fever? She said. I moved her hand off my head. Sorry, Jane, I said, I won't divorce. My marriage life was boring probably because she and I didn't value the details of our lives, not because we didn't love each other anymore. Now I realize that since I carried her into my home on our wedding day I am supposed to hold her until death do us apart.Jane seemed to suddenly wake up. She gave me a loud slap and then slammed the door and burst into tears. I walked downstairs and drove away.

At the floral shop on the way, I ordered a bouquet of flowers for my wife. The salesgirl asked me what to write on the card. I smiled and wrote, I'll carry you out every morning until death do us apart.

That evening I arrived home, flowers in my hands, a smile on my face, I run up stairs, only to find my wife in the bed - dead.

My wife had been fighting CANCER for months and I was so busy with Jane to even notice. She knew that she would die soon and she wanted to save me from the whatever negative reaction from our son, in case we push thru with the divorce.-- At least, in the eyes of our son--- I'm a loving husband....

The small details of your lives are what really matter in a relationship. It is not the mansion, the car, property, the money in the bank. These create an environment conducive for happiness but cannot give happiness in themselves. So find time to be your spouse's friend and do those little things for each other that build intimacy. Do have a real happy marriage!

Never Miss a chance to Say Your Beloved That "You Really Mean To Say"


Source : The Essence of Life 

Jul 15, 2011

Flumoxxed

A Day Quite confused but still with a Downward Bias

Needless to say today was an inside day and on Monday the inside day breakout will give huge profit on any side. I vote for the inside day to be broken on the downside.

For Monday Resistance lies at 5605 .. Above which a Dull up move may take place till 5625-5635. Buying only above 5645 . On the Contrary Break below 5575 will invite panic till 5502 -5486 - 5465.


Many Global events are being scheduled today so Much will depend on what they have in store for us.


Wish you a Great Weekend... :)

Jul 14, 2011

A Killer Day

On the Rocks with Few Kicks ...

What a Day ...... It is said that volatility increases at the trend reversal levels. The same happened today. Refer to the previous post... All Targets achieved and the up move also halts.Not much to say except that the trend is really bearish.

For Tomorrow Resistance lies at 5605... And below 5545 Steeper Falls Await.


Sitting tight with shorts is the strategy now ... You Never know What Future Holds for you.

Jul 13, 2011

Whipsaws ---- What to do and What not

Bang on Target

Above 5556 It was written that we may touch 5620 - 5640 ... Touched almost near 5600. Well the up move was really a tiring one with just in the last 10 minutes NF manged to move above 5600. This shows that resistances this time are really very strong.

For tomorrow 5625 is the resistance and NF will get sold off from there as per my opinion. On the contrary move above 5625 may induce short covering till 5680.

Tomorrow the first inflation data after the diesel prize hike will be watched for.Today we have moved above 5580 NS and thus there is a possibility that we may touch 5650-5660 tomorrow.

Still the Trend is bearish and dont get whipsawed by the relief rally. Targets open for 5465 -5430.

Jul 12, 2011

The Tussle get Resolved

A Day credited to bears.

Much of the sell-off seen today was because of the Europe Sell off. Below 5605 the visible target of 5556 got achieved and the panic continued.The closing session rally was just intraday profit booking of Shorts and nothing Else.

For tomorrow the Weakness would continue till 5465 -5430 at most.5465 is the area from where i am looking for a decent bounce -- Confirmation yet to be checked tomorrow. On the contrary Above 5556 The rally may continue till 5620-5640. Remote chances Exist though.Also note that if 5465 doesn't Hold then we would land at 5380 on dot.

Today with a closing below 5556 We are in a bear trend as such till we do not close above 5605 Now.

Staying with trend is Prudent Now.

Jul 11, 2011

Momentum is Waning

A Neutral Day though slight downward bias.

Why I call a neutral day cz after the failed break out we are still stuck in the same range of 5605-5705. Break of 5705 Lead to 5605 .... but below 5605 the fall which was expected did not culminate. The momentum is not visible in the fall.

For tomorrow The Resistance lies at 5630 - 5640 where again shorting can be done with a small SL. A Move above 5645 NF may lead to 5680 - 5695 though chances are remote. On the contrary a break below 5605 would lead to 5556. At 5556 One can buy with a small SL of 10-20 Point as this will be a low risk high reward trade.

Keep in The trend is still bearish till we don't close above 5920.

Jul 10, 2011

After A Long time

There cant be any excuses for a prolonged absence and failure.

So is true for me ... Cant give any excuses for this absence...and Sorry will not Work.

Coming to the point Nifty is really a tiring business since that last 3 months with bearish till mid of month and then rally for expiry.Will July be the Same.

On Friday NF got sold off from 200 SMA. Hence we have to respect the level.It broke below 5705 thus Targeting 5616 - 5605 on Monday. A break below 5605 will only bring panic till 5556-5545.

For Monday buying is suggested near 5605-5616 Level For an immediate target of 5680.One may Sell near 5705 too with a small SL.

Over all the trend is still bearish till we do not scale and close above 5920.Next week we may get 5490 where a good buying opportunity exists with a SL of 5445.


Stay with the trend and currently it is buy at supports and sell at resistances and play the 60-80 points game.